Greater Moncton’s industrial market is unusually well covered: several national and regional brokerages publish on it every quarter. The catch is that for the same Q2 2026, they report vacancy anywhere from about 3% to nearly 12%, and net rents from roughly $9 to $12 a square foot. Those gaps aren’t errors — they’re methodology. So rather than pick a number, we read all of them, and the signal underneath turns out to be remarkably consistent.
Why the headline numbers diverge
The spread comes down to what each firm counts. Some measure availability — space being marketed — while others measure vacancy, space physically empty. Some include owner-occupied buildings and a wider geography, spreading the same empty space over a much larger base and pushing the rate down; others track only leasable, non-owner-occupied stock, pushing it up. Rents split the same way: weighted-average in-place rents sit at the low end of the range, asking rents on brand-new space at the high end. Read any single report in isolation and you can badly misjudge the market.
What every source agrees on
Strip away the definitions and the same picture emerges across the board. After an extraordinary wave of construction from 2020 through 2025, that space is being absorbed. Vacancy — however it’s measured — is low-to-moderate by historical standards, and the market is broadly balanced. Net rents are rising and sitting at or near record highs. And absorption, while positive over the past year, has clearly normalized after an exceptionally busy stretch, with the occasional soft quarter.
The submarket pattern is consistent too: the established core parks are tight, newer Dieppe carries more availability as recently delivered space leases up, and the brand-new Moncton East park is still ramping. In short — a healthy, maturing market, not a soft one.
The forward-supply story: Moncton East
The single biggest thing to watch is new supply, and it has a name: the Moncton East Business Park. The city’s fourth industrial park — 124 acres, developed by Moncton Industrial Development and geared toward smaller owner-operators — is actively delivering, anchored by the recent completion of 200 Babineau Boulevard, with more projects expected to break ground and build-to-suit opportunities being shopped across the market. This is exactly the kind of forward supply that resets vacancy and caps rent growth, and it’s where we’ll watch absorption most closely.
Deals and construction
Investment and development activity backs the story. PROREIT acquired the newly built 1245 Aviation Avenue in Dieppe for $12.28 million, with roughly 50,000 square feet leased to a national distributor. Owner-occupiers stayed active, too — a national carrier became the first tenant at a new Caledonia-area logistics park, and a local energy firm completed a 70,000-square-foot warehouse-and-office build in Dieppe. Municipal permit values ran well ahead of last year. Even so, speculative development stays measured: elevated construction and financing costs mean most new large-format projects wait for firmer conditions.
The economic backdrop
The demand engine is moderating but intact. Economists see New Brunswick GDP growth easing to under 1% in 2026 from around 2% in 2025, as slower population growth, softer private investment, and Canada–U.S. trade uncertainty weigh — though the province’s tariff-exposed exports are a small share of the total. The labour market is steady, with unemployment near 7%, and Greater Moncton’s population has kept growing — close to 196,000 and still among Canada’s faster-growing metros. Provincewide the picture is uneven: Saint John’s industrial market tightened sharply this year while Fredericton softened — a reminder that “New Brunswick” is really several distinct markets.
What to watch in 2027
The base case into 2027 is a landlord-favourable market: modern space scarce, rents firming, and demand supported by Moncton’s role as Atlantic Canada’s logistics hub — reinforced by Dieppe Industrial Park upgrades and cargo growth at the Greater Moncton Roméo LeBlanc International Airport. Two variables decide how long it holds. On demand: whether population growth and consumption stay strong enough to keep absorbing space as immigration slows. On supply: whether firming rents and the Moncton East pipeline finally justify a new speculative build cycle — the same dynamic that reset the market mid-decade. Watch absorption versus deliveries; that ratio is the whole game.
What it means
- Occupiers: modern, well-located space is scarce and getting pricier on every measure — the window to lock favourable terms is narrowing. Move early rather than waiting for options that may not appear.
- Owners: leverage sits with landlords of quality, well-located product; older or peripheral space competes on price and flexibility.
- Investors: underwrite to a balanced-to-tight market, but stress-test demand against slower in-migration, a softer GDP outlook, and the Moncton East supply pipeline.
Weighing an industrial move, expansion, or acquisition in Greater Moncton? ONE.’s advisors read every one of these reports — and know which number actually applies to your decision. Reach out and we’ll map your options submarket by submarket.
Figures are third-party published research, supplemented by our internal data, and not derived from MLS® System data.
